DATA VANTAGE | Tariff impact on logistics, debut fund rebound, and other updates

Edition #459, 10th April 2025

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The imposition of new US tariffs on Southeast Asian exports — particularly from Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), and Indonesia (32%) — will introduce a fresh layer of complexity to the region’s logistics landscape. What was once viewed as beneficiaries of the US-China decoupling now faces a higher degree of uncertainty. For venture capital investors, this represents both a recalibration moment and a stress test for underlying theses.

With the rise of cross-border trade and e-commerce, logistics tech has long been positioned as a core infrastructure bet in Southeast Asia’s venture stack. From digital freight marketplaces to mid-mile trucking platforms, cross-border customs tech to last-mile deliveries, the narrative has been underpinned by the region’s trade liberalisation and digital adoption. But the latest shift in US trade policy compels a closer look at revenue exposure, lane concentration, and resilience of core markets.

Overlaying this with the region’s multi-year VC funding trend, it’s clear the sector has experienced a sharp valuation reset and demand correction. After peaking in 2021 on the back of post-COVID e-commerce optimism and supply-chain digitisation plays, deal activity has cooled significantly. By 2023, deal value had contracted to a fraction of prior highs, with investors becoming more selective and price-sensitive. This retreat is less about logistics losing relevance and more a reflection of greater scrutiny on business model sustainability, especially in asset-light platforms.

Source: DealStreetAsia’s DATA VANTAGE

Still, green shoots are emerging. 2024 saw a cautious reactivation of capital, particularly in segments tied to regional trade integration, cold-chain infrastructure, and supply-chain compliance. GPs are shifting their focus towards logistics enablers with visible paths to monetisation and stickier B2B relationships. That said, capital remains reserved for founders with proven operational discipline and exposure to high-frequency domestic or intra-ASEAN trade corridors.

While macro headwinds may compress volumes on US-bound corridors, we anticipate a reorientation of trade that could favour regional consolidation and East–South Asia connectivity as exporters diversify to friendly markets like China, Japan, South Korea, India, and within ASEAN itself. VC-backed firms with regional infrastructure, compliance capability, and cross-border adaptability such as Kargo Technologies, Locad, Cogoport and Andalin remain structurally well-placed to ride this shift.

The tariff risk doesn’t negate the logistics opportunity in Southeast Asia. Instead, it reframes it. Logistics plays are moving from hypergrowth narratives to infrastructure-grade assets. In a capital-constrained environment, the winners will be startups that can own layers of the supply-chain stack and unlock margin through resilience, not just reach.

For investors, this is a time to lean into longer-dated conviction bets with regionally aligned value chains, strong operator depth, and defensible moats built not only on tech but on relationships and operational muscle.

Debut funds recover, yet challenges remain

Southeast Asia recorded five debut venture capital fund closes in 2024, raising a combined $500 million, more than triple the $150 million raised across the same number of funds in 2023, marking a rebound in an otherwise constrained fundraising landscape, according to the latest biannual review from DealStreetAsia’s DATA VANTAGE.

VinVentures, a newly launched corporate VC arm of Vietnam’s Vingroup, secured the largest close with a $150-million allocation from its parent rather than from traditional limited partners, underscoring the growing role of corporate capital in Southeast Asia’s venture ecosystem amid a pullback from institutional LPs.

Source: DealStreetAsia’s DATA VANTAGE

Higher proceeds aside, the pace of debut fund formation remains well below historical norms. The region saw 12 debut fund closes in 2022 and 10 in 2021, both of which reflected stronger LP appetite and a more favourable macroeconomic backdrop. In 2019 and 2018, prior to the pandemic, Southeast Asia averaged 13 debut fund closes annually, with each year surpassing $1 billion in total commitments.

The sustained decline in new fund formation reflects the challenging capital-raising environment facing emerging managers. Amid continued macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting LP risk tolerance, investors are showing a clear preference for established firms with proven track records, leaving first-time managers struggling to secure anchor backing.

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Other updates from DATA VANTAGE

Singapore-based payment solutions provider [redacted] posted $21.6 million in revenue for the financial year ended March 2024, marking a 52% increase from the previous year. The strong topline growth helped the company significantly narrow its net loss for the year.

[Redacted], a Singapore-based personal finance platform, saw its annual revenue rise to $231,100 for the year ended March 2024, up sharply from just $2,200 in the previous year. Despite the growth, the company remained in the red but managed to narrow its net loss.

Singapore-registered plant-based food startup [redacted] more than doubled its revenue to $13,800 for the year ended March 2024. However, the company’s net loss slightly widened, reflecting continued cost pressures.

Digital freight forwarding platform [redacted] reported $593,100 in revenue for the 12 months ended February 2024, down from $860,400 in the previous year. Despite the revenue dip, the company swung to a net profit of $6,700 from a loss of $34,100 a year ago.

Aquatics-focused e-commerce platform [redacted] saw its revenue slip slightly to $37,100 for the year ended February 2024, compared to $39,800 in the year-ago period. The company, however, managed to significantly reduce its net loss from a year earlier.

You’re reading a redacted version of DealStreetAsia’s DATA VANTAGE twice-weekly newsletter. Unlock the full version and gain exclusive insights by subscribing to DATA VANTAGE today! Reach out to us at subs@dealstreetasia.com to upgrade.

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